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Refuting Savages

What do we do about Iraq?
11.28.2006

Do we “get big and go long or get small and go home,” as those who want to simplify the conflict suggest? Do we increase troop levels to decrease the violence or do we decrease troop levels in a sort of “sink or swim” signal to the Iraqi people with an impending full-withdrawal in the near-future? Let’s take a look at both suggestions, as I attempt to analyze:

Increasing our presence in Iraq is said to be the solution to mounting violence between Sunni and Shiite groups, and their foreign instigators. With more troops, the commanders there will have more flexibility to protect the borders, and patrol hot-spots in areas surrounding Baghdad. Arguments against this include the notion that Iraqis will become dependent on our services and entrap themselves in a sort of welfare-subject state. In the meantime, our soldiers will continue to fall victim to sporadic ambushes and roadside bombs in their attempts to secure the public order.

The “sink or swim” measure would present the Iraqi people with two options: fight or falter. This notion assumes that Iraqis are in the driver’s seat at the helm of their own future, and have not been displaced by ambitious Iranian and Syrian powers fighting to expand their spheres of influence. Ahmadinejad has already called for a “weekend summit” between the Syrian, Iranian, and Iraqi presidents, an offer which Iraqi President Jalal Talabani has since accepted. This comes amidst rumors in Washington that the responsibility of sustaining the Iraqi republic does not only burden the United States, but must include Syria and Iran as well.

It is well known that Syria has done little to curb the influx of foreign combatants via its border with Iraq, and sophisticated Iranian-made bombs have been found among foreign insurgents in Iraqi neighborhoods. Both countries abhor the American presence in Iraq, but have recently seen the Sunni-Shiite conflict grow to dominate the violence there, with Americans taking a back-step to a budding civil war. Neither Iranians nor Syrians really want to see an all-out war against Sunni and Shiite groups in Iraq. It is quite clear, however, that the neighboring despot in Syria and the “Guardian Council” in Iran also have no interest in seeing a vibrant, liberal democracy growing in their own backyard. In their eyes, a civil war could actually be preferable to a stable American-backed government, even if the conflict threatens regional stability.

Regional instability, after all, is what has given people like Ahmadinejad opportunity to move aggressively as Iran dominates Middle Eastern politics. But with a Democratic victory in America, whispers are that the American presence is coming to an end, which must make the Iranian President grin deviously. With the Americans gone, the powers that be in the Middle East, namely the Iranians, can stop encouraging a civil war and begin moves to become the puppeteer of Iraqi regimes for years to come, hence the “weekend summit.”

Unfortunately, the current Iraqi government has set itself up for failure, and a civil war that not even Iran may be able to stop once an American withdrawal comes. The Iraqi police and military forces are divided near-exclusively down ethnic divides, with all-Sunni and all-Shiite police units patrolling the streets and all-Shiite and all-Sunni military brigades manning the heavy machinery. With this sort of division, how could we have ever hoped for a united Iraqi military or police force? This goes without mentioning the armed militias on both sides, some of which are already funded by Iranian resources, which are precipitating further violence by running death squads in ethnic cleansing campaigns. How can the Americans, much less the Iranians, tackle such a ridiculous arrangement, especially with the Iraqi president unwilling to disarm the offending militias?

If the Americans withdraw, an Iranian-backed (or controlled) Iraqi government will move to quash the Sunni insurgency through means deplorable to the Western world, through any means necessary, and all animosity over the barbarism will inevitably be directed towards Americans, who started it all by invading Iraq in the first place. Our near-autonomous and prosperous Kurdish friends will inevitably fall victim in similar ways, in their effort to maintain their newfound freedom, which they have embraced with a stability unseen in the rest of Iraq.

This sweeping Iranian storm of influence will combine to ignite the Muslim world in new fury against the “Zionist occupiers” of Israel, and their American friends, who were responsible for the brutal civil war in Iraq. All of this together will present to the world a Middle East dominated by Iran which will inevitably showdown against its rival Israel, and who knows at what consequence?

As you see, we have very difficult decisions to make in our near-future which will have reverberating repercussions for years to come. If what we want to do is combat Islamic extremism, then the full withdrawal “sink or swim” measure is out of the question. But increasing our troop levels doesn’t seem to be any solution either. What we set out to do was to establish a democracy in the heart of the Middle East. If that isn’t still our goal, then what is? Do we even care if the Iraqi government, which the people of Iraq elected, survives at all? Do we care that the ensuing civil war after our exit may kill hundreds of thousands? Is there any concern that the consequences of a full withdrawal could ignite further anti-American extremism, and not curb it? Are we, quite simply, “damned if we do and damned if we don’t”?

Our goals now must include regional context. Iran is a threat, not only because of its nuclear ambitions, but because it’s government is the largest sponsor of Islamic terrorism in the world. This is a threat not only to the United States, but to Israel, the West, and the stability of most of this planet. Our attitude should not be, “how can we get out?” but rather, “how can we win?” Naturally, winning is the best way to get out, and by winning I mean establishing a stable, secular elected government in Iraq, something that would be unprecedented in the Islamic world. To do this, we must first dismantle the militias independent of the government authority and diversify the police and military units. We hand them the responsibility of patrolling the streets, while the American forces pursue those wishing to bring instability to the government relentlessly. Also, some effort must be made to contain the passage of foreign fighters and their weapons crossing the borders. This is a simplified strategy, and would of course require many smaller-scale but not insignificant moves. Ultimately, it would yield more stability, but it would require more American lives to be sacrificed. Yet, it will pale in comparison to the lives which will be sacrificed if we must return to right our wrongs years from now, when a new Persia dominates the map, and becomes so confident that it believes it can destroy Israel once and for all. In the mean time, would we have all that we have sacrificed till this point to be wasted in terrible vanity?

posted by Henry Emerson @ 11:28 AM,




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